Starmer's Backers Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Commons Comeback
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.
Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
A number of members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avert any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.
